Objectives and Deliverables

Objectives

Mitigation Pathways

To design two future scenarios (the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the aggressive mitigation (AM) scenario) and potential mitigation pathways to reach the 2030 carbon emission peak (CEP) and the 2060 CN target.

Air Quality

To project air pollution emission of 2030-2060 for the GBA by employing the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ model following the designed scenarios and evaluate the air quality changes between the scenarios.

Health and Socio-Economic Impact

To evaluate the consequential air quality-related health co-benefits and economic impacts for the GBA.

Climate Policy

To adopt the strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to develop the optimised climate policy for the GBA.

Deliverables

Design Pathways To 2030 CEP And 2060 CN Targets

(1) GBA's energy consumption characteristics analysis and CO2 emission inventory in 2019; (2) the estimation of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the GBA in 2030 and 2060 under different scenarios; (3) the projection of the CO2 emissions distribution of the GBA in 2030 and 2060; (4) The designed pathways to 2030 CO2 emission peaking and 2060 carbon neutral targets for the GBA.

Mapping And Projection Of Air Pollution

(1) Gridded spatiotemporal air pollutant maps and their differences among envisioned scenarios for PM2.5, PM10, O3, NOx, and SO2; (2) Interaction matrix of air pollutants in the envisioned air pollution assessment under the 2030-2060 Targets.

Better Understanding of the Cost Benefits under CN Targets

(1) A database of the GBA and Hong Kong’s long-term socioeconomic pathways, including population, GDP, and industrial structure; (2) PM2.5 and ozone associated health endpoints in 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 in the GBA and Hong Kong; (3) Avoided health expenditure and economic loss under CN target; (4) Socioeconomic cost of climate mitigation in the GBA and Hong Kong.

Knowledge Transfer

(1) Online information platform of energy consumption, carbon emission, and air quality and health co-benefits of the GBA; (2) SWOT analysis reports for the optimised development pathway and corresponding policies; (3) Two technical workshops; (4) One public engagement session; Educational leaflet of climate change mitigation.